Mike’s Take: You Don’t Have to Win the Lottery to Hit the Jackpot

May 18 by Leave a Comment

Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty ImagesTonight is the annual Draft Lottery where most non-playoff teams find out what pick they will have among the first 14 of the NBA Draft on June 24 – though as a result of a prior trade the Utah Jazz will have the first pick of the New York Knicks. The top three picks in the Draft will be determined by the drop of 1000 ping pong balls, while the remaining lottery teams will select in reverse order of their regular season standings. The lottery selection is weighted towards the teams with the worst records, so the New Jersey Nets are the favorites to receive the #1 pick this year, followed by the Minnesota Timberwolves.

It does not always work out that way, however, as the Chicago Bulls found out to their delight in 2008 when they were able to beat the odds and select Derrick Rose with the first pick in the draft. In fact the team with the best odds has only won the lottery three times in the last twenty years, while the team with the third best odds has won it five times. And though last year’s #1 pick Blake Griffin is expected to significantly improve the LA Clippers franchise, he suffered a season-ending injury in the preseason and the Clips wound up  29-53.

While it may seem obvious that the goal of each team tonight will be to win the rights to the #1 pick, it may be just as valuable to simply be in the top 4-5 picks given the nature of this year’s talent pool. The draft this year is expected to be a deep one, but most would consider it lacking the LeBron James type that is clearly the player around whom to build a franchise. Two of the standard debates involved with any high draft pick may be more relevant this year, namely:

1) Draft big or small?

2) Draft to fill a need or pick the best player available?

The current trend in the NBA is for teams to go small and/or versatile with the point guard position probably having the most depth in the league. For this reason, John Wall of Kentucky and Evan Turner of Ohio State are widely assumed to be the top two picks in the draft. There are two big men in the draft behind them though that could end up being a steal for the teams that draft behind the top two. They are Derrick Favors of Georgia Tech and Demarcus Cousins, also of Kentucky.

Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

The traditional wisdom is that teams this high in the draft should go for the best player available so teams may pass on Favors and Cousins even if they need a big man. The Portland Trail Blazers drafted Greg Oden with the #1 pick three years ago to fill a need, and while they remain committed to Oden’s future with the team, they have been forced to watch Kevin Durant (drafted #2 that year) blossom into a leading MVP candidate. And perhaps more famously The owner of the #1 pick will also be aware that its pick is going to be scrutinized for years to come. This pressure sometimes forces front offices to make the “safe” pick – i.e., the player who is the pre-draft favorite – rather than taking a shot at a less likely candidate.

When you consider that the Chicago Bulls landed Michael Jordan with the #3 pick back in 1984, winning the #1 pick tonight would clearly be a nice situation to be in, but it may not be all its cracked up to be.

The 2010 NBA Draft Lottery will be held May 18 at the NBA Entertainment studio in Secaucus, New Jersey at 7:00 PM ET.

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Mike’s Take: In Other News the Flyers Soar Past the Odds

May 15 by Leave a Comment

Last week three teams were bounced out of the NBA Semifinals in 4-0 sweeps. But on Friday night The Philadelphia Flyers made NHL history when they overcame a 3-0 deficit in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals to take the series in Game 7. After losing the first three games of the semis, the Flyers fought back to tie up the series for a Game 7 on the road. In the final matchup they rallied from three goals down to beat the Boston Bruins 4-3. What an incredible comeback. Only two NHL teams have won a series after falling behind 3-0 and only two teams have ever overcome a three-goal deficit in a Game 7. No NBA team has come back from a three-game deficit in a best-of-seven series. But coaches will undoubtedly point to this triumph to inspire their own players for years to come if they should find themselves in the same predicament. The power to overcome lies in the proof of what is possible.

Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images

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Mike’s Take: All That Jazz

April 4 by 9 Comments

The Utah Jazz are showing once again why they are arguably the model franchise in the NBA. Just like the Pittsburgh Steelers in the NFL, the Jazz have a culture of stability and loyalty along with a rabid fan base that has allowed them to remain competitive year-in, year-out. A nearly three-month stretch of strong play has catapulted the Jazz into in a four-way tie with the Mavs, Nuggets and Suns for the second best record in the highly competitive Western Conference with five games remaining.

Photo by Melissa Majchrzak/NBAEvia Getty Images

The formula that has gotten the Jazz to this point is a familiar one: pick-and-roll offense supported by good perimeter shooters, disciplined half-court defense and a significant home-court advantage. While Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer have replaced Stockton and Malone, the style of play remains remarkably similar. With the exception of Boozer, many of the Jazz’ current players are draft picks, including star point guard Williams. The Jazz’ judicious talent evaluation is particularly important in a market that makes it tough to attract high profile free agents.

Photo by Melissa Majchrzak/NBAEvia Getty ImagesAt the heart of it all as always is Head Coach Jerry Sloan. Sloan is now in his 22nd season as head coach, by far the longest tenure with one team of any coach in NBA history. His principled, no-nonsense manner has earned him high praise and respect from not only within the organization, but also across the league. Sloan was a hard-nosed player himself before moving to the coaching ranks, and that nature is very much reflected in his teams. He is still in search of that elusive championship (thanks in large part to Michael Jordan), but Sloan is that rare breed in professional sports who does not need rings and trophies to validate his career. His unerring approach to life and the game has already earned him the distinction of being recognized as one of the great coaches of the modern era. Deservedly he was inducted into the Basketball Hall of Fame in 2009.

The Jazz are playing very well right now, and will be bolstered by the return of Andrei Kirilenko from a calf injury. The play of Kirilenko and Mehmut Okur in support of Williams and Boozer will be critical success factors for the Jazz in the playoffs.  While this team may lack the overall consistency of the rock-solid Stockton and Malone teams, it is still a team nobody wants to play, particularly in Salt Lake City. And if they get hot, the Jazz could easily make a trip to the Finals.

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Mike’s Take: Rising Suns

March 6 by Leave a Comment

Photo by Andrew D. Bernstein-NBAE via Getty Images

For much of the season, the Denver Nuggets, Utah Jazz and Dallas Mavericks have been considered the only teams capable of dethroning the Lakers in the West. But there may be another team ready to throw its hat in the ring – the Phoenix Suns.

The Suns have been up and down all season, and their recent hot streak (11-4 in February and March) may simply be nothing more than that. There are reasons other than Steve Nash, however, why this may be the sign of a stronger push:

1) Amar’e Stoudemire:  Since the trade deadline, Amar’e has stepped up his level of play. His points are up and, more importantly, he seems to have a renewed commitment to rebounding on both ends of the floor. Free of the rumors surrounding his future (and perhaps realizing that he will be a free agent after the season) Stoudemire has been a dominant force on the inside.

2) Robin Lopez:  The insertion of Lopez into the starting lineup has not only added an interior defender and shot blocker to the mix, but it has also allowed Stoudemire to move to his natural power forward position. Overall team speed has not been sacrificed as it was at times with Shaq.

3) Bench play:  Led by Channing Frye, Jared Dudley, Goran Dragic and Louis Amundson, Phoenix’s bench has provided a significant energy boost and has allowed Coach Alvin Gentry to get his veteran starters much needed rest. The bench should be bolstered by the expected return of Leandro Barbosa.

Photo by Christian Petersen-Getty Images

4) Jason Richardson/Grant Hill: Both Richardson and Hill have the ability to shoot from the perimeter and post-up smaller defenders, giving the Suns additional inside-out capabilities. Both players are also solid defenders against opposing swingmen and good finishers on the break.

As always, defense is going to be the real key for the Suns come playoff time. While this team is still not a great defensive team, it is much improved from previous Suns teams, and the offense is clicking on all cylinders. Steve Nash is, as expected, playing his role as catalyst to perfection and is still capable of stepping up his scoring responsibilities if required. The Suns, especially Nash, are having a lot of fun playing ball right now, and it is reflected in their overall play.

The Suns host the Pacers tonight at 9 PM ET.

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Mike’s Take: Kobe Returns

February 24 by Leave a Comment

If there was any question as to whether the balance of power in the NBA has shifted from last year, the Lakers have done their best in the month of February to put that to rest. With their leading scorer and playmaker Kobe out for 18 days with injury, the Lakers simply went 4-1, including a road win against the streaking Jazz.  Only a narrow one-point loss to the Celtics rose against their record.

The icing on the cake came last night with the return of Kobe Bryant to the lineup. On the road against a Grizzlies team that has played the Lakers tough in recent games, Kobe scored the Lakers’ last nine points in an efficient 32-point outing highlighted by yet another game winning jump shot in the closing seconds.

The implications of the Lakers’ recent streak are more significant than the impact on their overall record. With Kobe sidelined, the Lakers’ other marquee players demonstrated a confidence and swagger that is sometimes missing. The bench also performed to a higher level than it has during any stretch of play this year, perhaps sensing the urgency that Kobe wasn’t around to close games out. Add to this the best fourth quarter performer in the game (who is now rested and healthier than at any point this season) and one can understand why the rest of the league may be taking notice.

While it is often the case that a team rallies in the short-term when a star player goes down, there seems to be something more far-reaching about LA’s latest streak. However, there remains a lot of basketball to be played, and the Lakers still need to put everything together into a cohesive, consistent package. If they manage to do so, we may well be looking at a repeat NBA champion.

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Lakers will meet the new and improved Mavericks tonight at 9 PM ET.

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